RickJourney's Blog

Firing a shot at Jefferson County lawmakers, JeffCo Commission President Bettye Fine Collins warned today of cuts in county services.

At least one lawmaker already calls it an effort to push the county's responsibility off to someone else.

Collins statement today says without the legislature agreeing to "restructure" the penny Education sales tax to handle the Sewer Bond Debt crisis, operating budgets for Environmental Services and Roads/Transportation will be cut millions. Read her full statement here.

Collins warns satellite courthouses at Green Springs and Forestdale will be closed and the Center Point and Gardendale sites will cut back to three days a week.

Collins says the legislative delegation "wants all (her emphasis) the power and none of the accompanying responsibility." She goes on to call the legislative delegation a "plantation form of rule."

State Rep. Rod Scott (D-Fairfield) warned of the potential for cuts on the HumpDayReport Wednesday. Still, he and Rep. Paul DeMarco (R-Homewood) stress lawmakers are against raising taxes to solve the crisis. Watch the interview here.

DeMarco tells me this afternoon "there is some tone deafness from the County Commission. The people have said they want no new taxes and user fees. This lays squarely on the shoulders of the county commission."

DeMarco says "this is the commission members trying to push the responsibility elsewhere."

DeMarco meets this afternoon with the two commissioners backing bankruptcy, Jim Carns and Bobby Humphreys.

Carns tells FOX6 News he will still push for a bankruptcy vote before the Commission next week, despite a three vote majority (Collins, Smoot, Bowman) opposing it.

Making news in the debate.

Bold promise or act of desperation?

John McCain proposed a bailout for at risk homeowners?

John McCain calls it the "American Homeownership Resurgence Plan" Tuesday night during the Nashville debate.

In his words, "as president of the United States, Allen, I would order the Secretary of Treasury to buy up the bad home loans and mortgages in America and re-negotiate at the real value of those homes and let people make those payments and stay in their homes. Is it expensive? Yes, but we all know that until we stabilize home values, we are never going to turn around and start creating jobs."

Price tag? $300 billion.

Source? Detailed, Camp McCain says, in the recent rescue plan passed by Congress.

Read the full proposal on the campaign website here.

Remarkable because its a notion dismissed among many fellow conservatives. Surprising because McCain has not seemed a fan previously of big-ticket government bail outs. Perhaps an "I opposed them before I supported them" moment.

Here's background on McCain's bailout stance in this LATimes story. Bob Drogin and Maura Reynolds quote McCain weeks back about an Obama proposal that included homeowner relief: "there is a tendency for liberals to seek big government programs that sock it to American taxpayers while failing to solve the very real problems we face."

More reaction Wednesday morning,  where long-time Republican loyalist Marty Connors stalled in his tracks on Good Day Alabama.

Hesitance, when asked about the McCain plan, choosing to ask for more details.

Hesitance right after Obama supporter and Democratic State Representative Merika Coleman appeared to praise the idea.

Watch the full exchange here.

And now to Team Obama's response: "it was ours before it was yours."

The independent watchdog Factcheck.org makes this observation:

"McCain...claimed the idea as his own: 'It's my proposal, it's not Sen. Obama's proposal, it's not President Bush's proposal.' But the idea isn't new. Obama had endorsed something similar two weeks earlier, and authority for the treasury secretary to grant such relief was included in the ... rescue package."

Read FactCheck's full breakdown of Nashville's debate claims here.

Now a Thursday Update:

Sen. Obama apparently opposes it after he "kinda" supported it. This is 360 politics.

If McCain seemed to fall in love with the mortgage notion for Tuesday's debate, the love is gone from Camp Obama. What started as a talking point of "me, too" from Obama staffers has now become full opposition.

On the campaign trail today, the AP reports Obama calls McCain's mortgage plan "ill advised."

Quoting from the AP story here: "Right now, the law lets bankruptcy judges write down your mortgage if you own six or seven homes," he said, "but not if you have only one. That might help Sen. McCain sleep easier at night, but it won't do anything for folks like you,"

Obama told supporters the plan "punishes taxpayers, rewards banks, and won't solve our housing crisis." Read more here.

The commissioner received a "smack down" after suggesting the federal government bail out JeffCo's sewer debt crisis. Even fellow Democrat Artur Davis, one of the congressmen representing Jefferson County, dismissed the notion.

Now comes this news release today. Does it sound like the commissioner felt a little "put-off" by reaction to her notion? You decide.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

October 7, 2008

Government Lifeline Possible for JeffCo in New U.S. Legislation for Financial Markets

States are Already Asking the Federal Government for Help

(Birmingham, AL) – Jefferson County Commissioners, who were mocked for suggesting they might get money from Washington's $700 billion Wall Street bailout, are looking like sane leaders, now that a provision in the bailout offers help for local governments stuck in the financial market meltdown.

A provision in Section 103 of the economic and tax credit legislation passed by Congress and signed by President George Bush Friday says that the U.S. Treasury Secretary can consider "the need to ensure stability for United States public instrumentalities, such as counties and cities, that may have suffered significant increased costs or losses in the current market turmoil."

The controversial law gives the Treasury broad powers to buy up to $700 billion of troubled securities to stabilize America's shaky financial markets.

Already, leaders such as California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and the National Association of County Officials are talking to Congress about their budget shortfalls in hopes of getting assistance from the stimulus package. Even Alabama Gov. Bob Riley Monday asked federal officials to consider a plan that would assure repayment to investors who buy the county's refinanced sewer debt.

Commissioner Shelia Smoot said she now feels vindicated after the ridicule she took for suggesting that the county get federal help through the bailout plan.

"When I first mentioned the bailout, some of our advisors, fellow commissioners and other government officials did not take my request seriously. In fact, some of them called it a 'false illusion,'" she said. "But now that the bailout plan is complete, with counties included in the legislation, false illusions have now become a reality."

Larry Naake, executive director of the National Association of County Officials, said no one knows for sure how the Treasury could help struggling local governments under the bailout plan. "We are still analyzing it," he said. "While the complete solution for the crisis that counties are facing is not contained in the financial rescue package, it will be a big first step toward financial stability for communities."

Smoot said it makes sense for the county to seek relief under the package because the credit crunch now gripping Wall Street -- caused by the sub-prime mortgage implosion, among other factors -- has trickled down to Jefferson County and other government entities.

Jefferson County's $3.2 billion sewer debt was undermined when the credit ratings of the two companies insuring the county's sewer bonds were sharply downgraded. That in turn triggered a series of interest rate increases that hiked the county's monthly payments to millions of dollars above what it could afford to pay under current terms with bondholders.

Now those same insurance companies and creditors have filed a lawsuit petitioning the courts to put the county into receivership. That could force officials to pay for the faulty debt by steeply increasing sewer rates and taking money from the penny sales tax fund for schools.

Andreas Rauterkus, an assistant professor of finance at the UAB School of Business who teaches courses on credit markets, has said filing bankruptcy could make it even tougher to borrow or conduct in business in such troubled economic times. That's why Smoot, along with Commissioner George Bowman and Commission President Bettye Fine Collins, have so strongly opposed bankruptcy.

"Our job as government officials is to deal with the crisis head-on, not throwing in the towel and not giving in, which is what bankruptcy means," Smoot said. "I will fight to do everything I can to make sure this county maintains its credibility and stability. I will continue to fight until there are no other options on the table. But right now, we're in a good position."

Is there any chance John McCain or Barack Obama could sway your vote tonight? Think about it.

An audience of 80 to 120 people, undecided voters in Tennessee, will gather at Belmont U tonight for a town-hall debate between John McCain and Barack Obama.
The candidates will sit six feet away from each other as they field questions from the crowd.

The Gallup organization selected the audience members. They have each been asked to have two questions ready for tonight. The moderator, Tom Brokaw of NBC News, will also have the option of using questions emailed to mydebates.org. Yes, that means you can post a question that could be selected tonight. Click here to check the site out.

Many of you that blog here on MyFoxAL.com appear to have strong feelings on the candidate of your choice. So, here's my question for you: what would change your mind about the candidate you support?

Be open minded here. If you are a die-hard McCainiac, what one issue could Barack Obama sway you on? If you are a true-blue Obamican, what topic could John McCain nail that would change your mind? Be honest and let me hear you sound off.

While the markets drop and people worry about their 401K's, happy Monday to you.

It's going to take time. Those words from the Bush Administration, members of Congress and found in financial news around the nation today as Europe deals with its own crisis and the Dow fell below 10,000 earlier today.

The president promised swift action today in buying up the bad debt from struggling financials and Treasury introduced the 700-billion dollar man in charge of the job.

Meet Neel Kashkari in this Wall Street Journal blog. And yes, he's a GoldmanSachs man.

If anyone thought this situation would magically end with the bailout vote last Friday, get ready.

Bloomberg reports today the Fed may face rescuing corporate America and local governments. Read here. Only a week ago, you may recall, California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger wrote Secretary Henry Paulson that the Golden State and others may need short-term financing from the government.

Recall Jefferson County Commissioner Sheila Smoot (D) wanted a bond bailout, but no chance, we heard in a smackdown from Rep. Artur Davis, who told the county last month, its your own doing.

Republican commish Jim Carns may disagree in the blame game. He's not talking "bailout," but does believe the county should stick it to Wall Street firms. In a committee meeting today, Carns and Bobby Humphreys passed a resolution favoring bankruptcy in the long-running sewer bond crisis.

In a statement, Carns writes "the financial crisis facing Jefferson County is not entirely of its own making. Certain Wall Street firms participated in fully in creating the financial schemes that have caused so much trouble."

Carns statement says "a bankruptcy plan will be fairer to all creditors and to the County than the likely current negotiations."

Congressional hearings today look for blame on the national financial picture. Lehman Brothers and its bankruptcy provide red meat for soundbite starved lawmakers looking for a get -tough moment. Read here.

All this comes as a presidential race plays out and Obama-Biden continues to grow a lead off of economic concerns. Trying desperately to shift the message, McCain-Palin went into attack over the weekend, rehashing stories about 60's radical Bill Ayres (read here).

Obama launched his response on the Sunday trail here. Then followed up with his on attack: Keating Five and calling McCain "erratic" as a leader.

Is the negative attack McCain's latest Hail Mary Pass?

29 days til the election, the score is 50-43, advantage Obama.

Catch Good Day at 7am Tuesday. Rep. Spencer Bachus (R-Vestavia) on the bailout, the fallout and today's stock plunge. Let me know what you want to hear from him.

One month to go now and this has been a tough week for John McCain.

The bailout plan which he supported and claimed credit for blew up in his face when not enough House Republicans followed his lead Monday. Battleground states like Ohio and Florida and Virginia started slipping away. Obama gained in the national poll numbers (which don't matter until you look at the state by state tallies that also favor Obama) and suddenly published reports show Team McCain conceding Michigan (one of two key Rust Belt states I argue he needs to win) and listing Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Maine as places where the "Detroit Rock City" state resources will now shift. Read more here.

Maine, you ask? It, along with Nebraska, splits electoral votes and could prove critical in a tight race. Still, the fact that Camp McCain is currently fractionalizing electoral numbers suggests its a dire situation.

McCain's running mate did not "fall apart" as some, even supporters, feared. Still, while Sarah Palin is receiving good debate reviews from Thursday night, (see my favorite columnist David Brooks here) "snap polls" say viewers gave Joe Biden the advantage Thursday night here and here.

Web and published reports say McCain is retreating to his ranch in Sedona, AZ this weekend in the heart of the campaign. Maybe he can find his Mojo there like a pre-debate Sarah Palin. New Age folks like Shelby County's James Redfield (of Celestine Prophecy fame) have said for years Sedona has healing powers. :)

What must he do in the coming week, which puts the campaign inside a month to go? Back against the wall, McCain's strategy in the past five weeks has been the "Hail Mary Pass."

The obvious examples, Sarah Palin as running mate (which still may or may not blow up in his face based on her polling numbers) and suspending his campaign/threatening not to debate in Oxford- that one really went the wrong way for McCain.

McCain returns to the South, this time Nashville, for bell number two in the three round heavyweight match known as the race for the presidency. McCain and Obama meet Tuesday night at 8 for the second debate.

I would be curious to hear your thoughts. What will be the next move for a McCain camp now watching the numbers slip away and looking for a break?

Have a good weekend.

Roll Tide and Go Saints.

Alabama's 7th district congressman, Democrat Artur Davis, says congress must do something to deal with the credit crisis. He seems hopeful about the bailout vote scheduled for the next hour. Davis says his vote will be the same as Monday's: yes.

Davis points to Republican Spencer Bachus as the leader of the delegation on the issue. The Democrat from Birmingham says there are too many experts on both sides of the aisle urging action today. Listen to Davis's interview with Janice Rogers here.

Alabama's only holdout Monday among House members, Robert Aderholt (R-Haleyville), appears to be leaning to a "no" vote again, but has not stated his stance. His office plans to issue a release shortly after the vote scheduled for noon.

Then there is the story of Bachus. A hapless story in many ways. Bachus says he'll back the plan, but not without some grumbling.The Birminghan News story here quotes Bachus reconsidered his vote unless the spending slowed down. Bachus wanted $250-billion in the hands of the Treasury now, but the remainder passed along only after Congress views the situation and approves additional spending in November. Insider must read: Politico details Bachus' frustrations following Monday's failed effort. Read it here. In the words of one California Republican "he was thrown under the bus."

This part of the soft-spoken congressman from Vestavia's prepared words for the vote:

"The precedent established by this massive government intervention should be troubling to all of us.  But as I said on Monday, the circumstances under which this legislation was presented for our review and the rapid deterioration in our economy have left us with no good options.

What was a difficult decision on Monday has been made even more agonizing for me by the pork barrel items that have been attached to this bill by the other body – tax breaks for Puerto Rican rum makers, wooden arrow manufacturers, and Hollywood film producers, to name just three.  Yesterday, I went before the Rules Committee with the gentleman from Ohio, Mr. LaTourette, on behalf of more than 20 of our Republican colleagues to urge them to make in order an amendment that would have struck these earmarks from the bill, while also providing for greater congressional control over the $700 billion.

There was no disagreement among Members of the Rules Committee that these Senate pork provisions were unacceptable, but every single Democratic Member of that Committee voted over the objection of every single Republican not to allow the Members of the House to vote on the LaTourette amendment.  As a result, the Members of this body are presented with a choice on the floor today that is, in my view, shameful.  In trying to do what is right for the economic future of our country, we are forced to vote for provisions that are deeply offensive and have no place in a bill that is intended to rescue our economy.

So in closing, M. Speaker, I will vote for this bill today, as I did on Monday, because although it is certainly not the popular or the politically expedient thing to do, it is the right thing to do.  I do so with enormous respect for those of my colleagues who have made a different choice, and whose consciences do not allow them to vote for this significant expansion of the Federal government’s role in our free market economy. "

Haleyville Republican Robert Aderholt says he hopes a revised plan to rescue struggling financial institutions fails to pass later today in the U.S. Senate.

He tells Good Day Alabama he believes there is time to put together another plan including tax breaks and private investments, minus taxpayer dollars. Watch the full interview here.

The Senate bill today does involve tax breaks for businesses - small and mid-sized companies - with the hope of dangling a carrot for House Republicans, like Aderholt, who rebelled from congressional leadership, their president and presidential nominee to defeat the plan. Read Politico's description of the new plan here.

Aderholt is not buying the new deal, despite warnings that  failure to act will create an economic crisis not seen since the Great Depression. Aderholt agrees the implications are serious, but says he does not want to use taxpayer money. He believes most Americans oppose a taxpayer-financed bailout.

His alternative plan focuses on a suspension of capital gains taxes, increased tax incentives to encourage the private investment and greater accountability of Wall Street to Washington.

Although he remains hopeful the plan will be part of any compromise, it does not appear "in play" right now in House negotiations.

Seventh district congressman Artur Davis says after candid discussions, all but one of the members of the Alabama delegation followed the lead of the sixth district Republican Spencer Bachus.
The Birmingham Democrat says his colleague from Vestavia Hills ultimately felt the 700-billion dollar rescue plan for the nation's financial institutions was the right choice to avoid what the Bush Administration calls a "crisis."

In a somber speech on the House floor Monday, Bachus warned members failure to pass the plan will ultimately mean "companies going out of business - we've been told it would.  It can mean more bank failures - it probably will.  It will mean impairment of our parents and grandparents' pension.  I'm not willing to put that bullet in the revolver and spend it."

Davis offered bi-partisan support when he described Bachus providing real leadership in Monday's failed attempt to pass the 700-billion dollar measure. Davis also says he's disappointed in the "blame game" currently underway between leadership from both parties.

On FOX6 News at Noon, Davis described Bachus, who serves as ranking Republican on the House Financial Services Committee, as the expert on the issue from Alabama. "As Bachus goes, so goes Alabama," Davis said about the seven member delegation.
Supporters fell 12-votes shy of passing the measure that is expected to clear the Senate Wednesday.

Alabama's fourth district congressman Robert Aderholt (R-Haleyville) was the lone NO vote from Alabama. He announced co-sponsorship today of an alternative plan, "The Free Market Protection Act of 2008." In a release, he describes it as using "voluntary private capital, not taxpayer capital, which will help the system recover properly." You can read more about his plan here, though currently the alternative version appears to have little traction in the current talks for a new proposal.

Many supporters, Davis included, say the President and Congressional leadership have done a poor job of explaining the plan. Talk of crisis has not detailed specifics, leaving critics to describe it as a bailout for Wall Street fat cats. Economists and legislative supporters say failure to rescue the struggling financial system will completely freeze lending among banks, creating a chain-reaction that will dry up loans for small and mid-size businesses, halt mortgage lending, even create a reduction on many limits for credit cards. 

Those predictions lead to warnings of job reductions and a long deep recession. Davis and others say little has been done to point out the potential the "bailout," flawed though it may be, could actually turn a good investment.

UAB Finance professor Andreas Rauterkus says while the billions in "bad debt" may look like trash, many of the assets would have the time to gain value once the market unfreezes. Its a notion reported in only a handful of stories like this one here from the LATimes.

Finally, the belief that American taxpayers are angry and totally against the bailout may not be the case now. Scott Rasmussen of Rasmussen Reports told me this morning on Good Day Alabama that opposition topping 50-percent last week dramatically dropped to 32% Sunday.  Read the full report here.

Still, Americans seem conflicted in new numbers from Rasmussen this afternoon. Forty-five percent believe the rejection will hurt the economy. Thirty-three percent believe its overblown by the media. Read the full analysis here.

Program note:  Rep. Robert Aderholt talks to Good Day Alabama about his vote Wednesday at 7am. 

Spencer Bachus called it the hardest vote of his congressional career. A lot of members made that statement and at the end of the day, the Yes votes were 12 shy.

Final score: 228 - 205.

From the floor of the House, Bachus told members "our time has run out...  I have decided that the cost of not acting outweighs the cost of acting."

Aderholt Only No Vote from Alabama

By the time the shocking defeat was recorded, only 4th district Republican Robert Aderholt voted No among those in the Alabama delegation.

In a statement released immediately, Aderholt explained his opposition.

"The Administration's request amounts to the largest corporate bailout in American history and it is one that I am not comfortable with supporting. There are no easy answers to the current disarray in our economy but there are alternatives to massive government spending that we should explore."
"Our economy is facing historic challenges and I have been deeply frustrated by the apparent irresponsibility and greed on Wall Street that is now affecting our economy."
"Congress must not hastily embrace a cure that may do more harm to our economy, especially when the American people overwhelmingly object the legislation."
"Now that this so called bail out legislation has failed, Congress must stay in session to address this problem in a way that is acceptable to the American people. We can't proceed with the same bill. Congress must put together a proposal that will not only work but will restore the trust of the American people."

Alabama's Two Democrats Back The Bailout

Retiring Huntsville Democrat Bud Cramer joined Artur Davis of the 7th district.

Here is what Davis released on the failure of the package known as the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008.:      

"I voted for the financial recovery package today for one primary reason: my concern that the credit markets and capital markets could be devastated if we did nothing. Like five of my colleagues in the Alabama delegation, I worried that the effect of such a collapse could cost Alabamians jobs, could threaten businesses all over the state, and could jeopardize the pension funds of numerous workers.

"Like all other Americans, I am troubled by the astonishing drop in the stock market in the aftermath of the bill's failure.  I fear that the outcome of the vote today was a huge gamble with our economy.  We are now reduced to hoping for the best as we navigate these very difficult challenges."

More from Bachus

From the House floor, before the defeat, Bachus warned the implications of not acting would be "companies going out of business - we've been told it would.  It can mean more bank failures - it probably will.  It will mean impairment of our parents and grandparents' pension.  I'm not willing to put that bullet in the revolver and spend it."

Bachus, unopposed for re-election, sounded the call of other supporters facing a heated campaign season: "I will take the political risk."

Inside Spin Alley...its a fascinating world.

Student volunteers to the campaigns walk the vast room with tall signs declaring their campaign allegiance with an additional name. Something like McCain-Palin-Giuliani or Obama-Biden-Axelrod. The placards and signs create a pied piper effect on reporters looking for post-debate spin and Ole Miss staffers anxious to spot political celebrity.

Lined down the temporary building, Rudy Giuliani, Sen. Trent Lott and Gov. Haley Barbour hold court with television anchors. Their message supports McCain.

DNC Chairman Howard Dean and Clinton's Secretary of State Madeliene Albright work a crowd lodged between the TV booths and print row. They tout the many successes of Obama.

Eavesdropping on these many clusters of spinners and journalists gives you a good idea what the repeated mantra of each campaign will be in the 48 hour post-debate cycle.

Sen. Obama's senior campaign strategist David Axelrod, for example, praises his candidate's "powerful case for changing priorities" in the nation. Influential Washington Post columnist Howie Kurtz rapidly jots notes as Ax spins. Minutes later, its a new group of broadcast, print and web journalists gathered (the notable now is Howard Fineman of Newsweek and NBC fame).  Again, Axelrod riffs on the notion of "shifting priorities" and observes McCain seems "strangely detached from the experience of average Americans."

Five feet and a cluster of reporters away, its Charlie Black's turn. He's a key strategist for Sen. McCain. He quickly tells me there are enough "strong points" to keep us here for hours. He kindly shortens his observation, calling the debate "John McCain's ground....federal spending cuts dominated the economic debate."

Black contends the foreign policy debate showed "McCain's experience, knowledge and vigilance" while Obama's "naive statements display bad judgements."

Move a few feet closer to the center of Spin Alley (they have signs pointing the way all through the secure area), McCain spokesman Tucker Bounds declares McCain has "led on the issues...has a record." Bounds believes the debate makes it evident "Obama was on defense, making promises when he doesn't have a record that supports it."

Around 10:30, Howard Dean moves through the center of the room.

McCain is "obsessed with the past... said nothing about the future tonight," Dean observes.

Months of planning this first in the series of presidential debates.
Days of discussing will McCain show?
Hours of debate prep for both men and the immediate judgement of the public is largely cast.

Spin Alley performers work to revise the storyline you may have developed in your head. A story line that may not readily fit their campaign plan.

Heading back to Alabama now. Spin safely.

Democratic Senator John Kerry playfully mocking Republican Senator Lindsey Graham- making faces behind his back during an interview in Spin Alley.

Katie Couric and the Washington Press Corps downing Rendezvous ribs from Memphis in the media tent.

Rudy Giuliani shaking hands. Bill Richardson talking policy.

The sounds of the North Mississippi All Stars grooving down the block at The Grove.

Let the games begin. Pre-game here in Oxford now and yes, it might as well be the Ole Miss Rebels and the Alabama Crimson Tide. This is game day atmosphere for a Super Bowl of politics.

Thousands of journalists are now gathered, settling in to watch the debate in a variety of locations (only 600 +/- VIPS get the nice seats in the Ford Center), ready to report on the first matchup in this three debate series.

A budget bailout on hold, two days of questioning if McCain would show up and word tonight of the Senate's liberal lion, Ted Kennedy, rushed to the hospital. Will any or all prove distractions?

You can say these situations and 18 months of intense media coverage, town hall meetings and fundraisers all add up to proving who has the "stuff" to be president.

To borrow a line from Ole Miss Chancellor Robert Khayat, is Ole Miss ready? You know the answer.

The big story tonight- are McCain and Obama?

Three and a half hours from debate time here in Oxford, Mississippi.

Barack Obama arrived, then did the walk through at 2pm.

John McCain arrived one hour later.

Each seperately did a walk through of the Ford Center, sight of tonight's first debate, then departed until "game time."

Ever present, thousands of journalists and the politicos placing their hopes on a particular candidate.

Among those "notables" here, Sen. John Kerry.

He knows what these men are going through at this moment. Four years ago he was the Democratic nominee challenging incumbent Republican George W. Bush. Kerry scored points in his first debate with Bush, many pundits and viewers called him presidential. The numbers moved up for Kerry, until they didn't. Kerry lost.

The first debate may indeed set the tone for the series of meetings, but its not the final play of the game.

Expect moderator Jim Lehrer to raise questions about the economy, but this is scheduled to be about foreign policy. On that topic, University of Alabama political science professor and noted debate expert David Lanoue expects two challenges.

For Obama, appear strong and confident on the issue.

For McCain, appear cool and calm.

Lanoue says debates are typically for losers.

A candidate who doesn't surprise or make news is fine. Its the mistake that gets you everytime.

Let me know what you think about the debate as we post tonight.

"Told you so."

The exact words from one Ole Miss administrator after confirmation John McCain will indeed come to Oxford for a debate with Barack Obama.

McCain had said the debate should be put off until the proposed bailout deal was resolved.

That still hasn't happened and now McCain is on his way to Mississippi.

Remember, this is billed as a "Foreign Policy" debate, but expect moderator Jim Lehrer to begin this night on the economy.

Also, watch for talking heads from the McCain campaign to defend the candidate's decision to leave Washington and Obama's talking heads to attack McCain's last two days.

Spin Alley outside the Ford Center will be twistin'.

Good morning from Oxford, Mississippi where Gov. Haley Barbour expects a "great debate between two candidates" tonight.

His message Thursday, echoed this morning by school chancellor Robert Khayat who tells me "some type of show" will go on tonight.

Khayat's staff is in meetings with the Commission on Presidential Debates.

The Ole Miss point man for that meeting is Andrew Mullins who tells me the students expect an event tonight and he intends to put one on with or without McCain, with or without the Debate Commission.

In other words, a Barack Obama event?

McCain raised doubt Wednesday when he called for a delay of tonight's debate until the bailout negotiations were complete.

They are not and Ole Miss is now faced with the first debate being a non-debate.

And McCain may be facing growing criticism. In a  New York Times front page analysis this morning, unnamed participants in the White House negotiations suggests McCain's (or Obama's) presence is not needed. They suggest its more show than policy, so why not debate tonight, they ask?

The Associated Press reports from Mobile this morning that former Republican candidate Mike Huckabee believes McCain made a "huge mistake" when he discussed not attending this debate.

Huckabee echoes the NYT analysis when he says the American people need to hear from McCain and Obama in Oxford about what they would do as president. Huckabee (who won the Alabama Republican primary) says that's more important for the candidates than being in Washington for those contentious negotiations.

Is a pushback (that started with David Letterman's show Wednesday night) building?

What does it mean for an election less than six weeks out?